Posted below is a very long-term chart of gold in log scale. If the Elliott Wave count I've labeled on the chart is correct (and I think there is a relatively good chance that it is, because it is a very clear text book pattern), then gold made a generational high in 2011 and will trend sideways to lower for many years. The expected cycle low in late 2016 to early 2017 will likely produce a good rally, but I would not expect new highs in gold until we start heading up into the next 31-year cycle top many years from now. Frankly, gold could easily retrace the entire rally from $253 or even lower before the bear market lows are in. However, two weekly closes above 2,200 would invalidate the current count and project much higher prices. This seems unlikely given the 31-year cycle that appears to have topped in 2011.
The long-term silver chart has a much different look and does not have a clear E-wave count. Therefore, one could not rule out new highs in silver after the 2016/2017 lows are in.
Kim Rice 4/14/13
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