Silver Hits a Perfect .382 Retracement

As shown on the chart below, silver has bounced right at an exact .382 retracement in log scale on the long term chart. A confluence of several different timing methods lined up on 6/28/13 just as silver hit the .382, so there was a price and time squaring which may add to the significance of the low. I still favor lower prices later in the year and into late 2016 or early 2017.

Kim Rice 7/1/13

Gold: Long-term E-waves and Cycles

Posted below is a very long-term chart of gold in log scale. If the Elliott Wave count I've labeled on the chart is correct (and I think there is a relatively good chance that it is, because it is a very clear text book pattern), then gold made a generational high in 2011 and will trend sideways to lower for many years. The expected cycle low in late 2016 to early 2017 will likely produce a good rally, but I would not expect new highs in gold until we start heading up into the next 31-year cycle top many years from now. Frankly, gold could easily retrace the entire rally from $253 or even lower before the bear market lows are in. However, two weekly closes above 2,200 would invalidate the current count and project much higher prices. This seems unlikely given the 31-year cycle that appears to have topped in 2011.

The long-term silver chart has a much different look and does not have a clear E-wave count. Therefore, one could not rule out new highs in silver after the 2016/2017 lows are in.

Kim Rice 4/14/13

Possible Top in Silver

The silver market has some time symmetry shown on the chart with a potential 107 trading day turn due 11/29/12. Silver is hitting this timing just as the chart is approaching the upper parallel trend channel. I would think the potential for a significant top in this area would likely be invalidated if silver continues to rally 50 cents or buck over the line.

Kim Rice 11/29/12

XAU - If You're Bullish, May I Ask Why?

It doesn't look bullish to me unless the XAU rallies above the right shoulder at the 198 level. Otherwise, it looks like a massive topping pattern with much lower projections. The time and price symmetry of the House & Gable Roof pattern is quite impressive as annotated on the chart. If the symmetry continues, there may be an intermediate low in late October 2013.

Kim Rice 11-27-12

171 Week Blast-off Cycle

Posted below is a gold chart showing a pretty regular 171 week blast-off cycle, which is next due to hit the week of 9/21/12, but could be as late as anytime in October or may have already bottomed if it came in early. If the gold market gets a decent pull-back into Sep/Oct after the current rally phase we're in, it may be a wave 2 before a powerful wave 3 up-leg. Of course, the cycle could fail entirely as it has twice since 1976.

It appears the cycle lows projected in previous post for 8/17/12 area have turned up on schedule, but did not bring the anticipate price destruction as the cycle ended.

Other analysis on the chart below shows important timing in 2014 and 2017 for gold as well, and a potential resistance point around 2200. At this point, one can only guess if 2014 and 2017 may be highs or lows.

Kim Rice 8/26/12

Mid August 2012 Low in the Metals?

There are quite a few cycles that converge on or near 8/17/12, presumably for a low in silver and gold. The ideal window is 8/16 to 8/21/12. Price-wise silver has multiple projections and measured retracements to the 21 area (+/- 1 point or so). If silver falls into that price area around the 17th of August, I believe it would represent a high probability buy setup for a long position. If silver doesn't dive to the 21 price area, or if it rallies into the 17th, it should still mark a change of trend of some sort; however, the confidence and position size would be less. The stop would be 50 cents above or below whatever price extreme is established in the Aug 16th to 21st time frame. Based on my analysis, the 20-21 price area will be hit at some point: if not in the next few weeks, then perhaps in the next year or two after more range trading. Silver also has a potential target around the 13 area if the 20 area doesn't hold. The green trendline from the 2001 lows (monthly log scale chart)comes in around 13 which is also a 50% retracement in log scale of the 1993 low to the 2011 highs.

Posted below are several charts with analysis annotated on the charts, including a potential time analog and anniversary date from 2007. The first chart is in arithmetic scale, the rest are in log scale.

Kim Rice 7/29/12