There are quite a few cycles that converge on or near 8/17/12, presumably for a low in silver and gold. The ideal window is 8/16 to 8/21/12. Price-wise silver has multiple projections and measured retracements to the 21 area (+/- 1 point or so). If silver falls into that price area around the 17th of August, I believe it would represent a high probability buy setup for a long position. If silver doesn't dive to the 21 price area, or if it rallies into the 17th, it should still mark a change of trend of some sort; however, the confidence and position size would be less. The stop would be 50 cents above or below whatever price extreme is established in the Aug 16th to 21st time frame. Based on my analysis, the 20-21 price area will be hit at some point: if not in the next few weeks, then perhaps in the next year or two after more range trading. Silver also has a potential target around the 13 area if the 20 area doesn't hold. The green trendline from the 2001 lows (monthly log scale chart)comes in around 13 which is also a 50% retracement in log scale of the 1993 low to the 2011 highs.
Posted below are several charts with analysis annotated on the charts, including a potential time analog and anniversary date from 2007. The first chart is in arithmetic scale, the rest are in log scale.
Kim Rice 7/29/12
